Journal article · Open access
New citizen science initiative enhances flowering onset predictions for fruit trees in Great Britain
Wyver, C., Potts, S.G., Pitts, R., Riley, M., Janetzko, G. & Senapathi, D.
Horticulture Research, Volume 11, Issue 6, June 2024. DOI: 10.1093/hr/uhae122
Predicting when fruit trees will flower is essential for managing pollinators, pests and disease — but existing datasets rarely cover more than a handful of locations. This study introduces FruitWatch as a solution, using citizen science records to fill that gap at national scale. Using 2022 data for four cultivars, the research demonstrates that flowering dates shift significantly with latitude, that citizen-submitted records can successfully parameterise established phenology models, and that those models can generate realistic predictions of flowering onset across Great Britain. The findings show that volunteer observations can deliver the cultivar- and location-specific predictions growers need to manage their orchards effectively.